Ways to improve population forecasting: What should be done differently in the future?

Ahlburg, D.A., Lutz, W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7975-8145, & Vaupel, J.W. (1999). Ways to improve population forecasting: What should be done differently in the future? In: Frontiers of Population Forecasting. Eds. Lutz, W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7975-8145, Vaupel, J.W., & Ahlburg, D.A., New York: Population Council.

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Abstract

To improve population forecasting in the future, demographers should conduct more thorough assessments of the accuracy of past projections. Research should also focus on making greater use of: (1) models that include marriage, divorce, cohabitation, morbidity, and other demographic events that influence fertility, mortality, and migration as well as models that break populations down by educational achievement, employment status, and other variables; (2) models that take account of economic, social, and environmental dynamics, including integrated structural models and models with constraints; and (3) forecasting approaches that systematically quantify uncertainty. A further area that requires rethinking is the appropriate use of expert judgment in population projections. Finally, new ways need to be developed for distributing software for making population forecasts and for disseminating the results of alternative forecasts.

Item Type:	Book Section
Research Programs:	World Population (POP)
Bibliographic Reference:	In: W. Lutz, J.W. Vaupel, D.A. Ahlburg (eds); Frontiers of Population Forecasting; Population Council, New York, NY, USA pp.191-198 (1999)
Depositing User:	IIASA Import
Date Deposited:	15 Jan 2016 02:11
Last Modified:	05 Aug 2023 05:01
URI:	https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/5796

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