Latin American World Model. Proceedings of the Second IIASA Symposium on Global Modelling

Bruckmann, G. (1976). Latin American World Model. Proceedings of the Second IIASA Symposium on Global Modelling. IIASA Collaborative Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: CP-76-008

Preview

Text CP-76-008.pdf Download (2MB) | Preview

Abstract

The mathematical model presented here is normative; the concern is not with predicting what will occur if the contemporary tendencies of mankind continue, but rather with sketching a way of arriving at the final goal of a world liberated from backwardness and misery.

Any long-term forecast about the development of mankind is based on a view of the world rooted in a particular value system. By assuming that the structure of the contemporary world and the set of values which sustains it may be linearly projected toward the future, we are in fact taking a position. In this sense, the difference which is usually made between a projective and normative model is essentially fallacious.

The idea of constructing this model springs from a meeting held in 1970 in Rio de Janeiro sponsored jointly by the Club of Rome and the Instituto Universitario de Pesquisas do Rio de Janeiro. The meeting analyzed and discussed the results of the World Model 111 which was constructed by the group headed by Meadows at the Sloan School of Management of the Massachusetts Institute of Technology (MIT). As a result of the discusion of the basic assumptions of the World Model III, a group of Latin Americans attending the meeting decided to assign the Fundacion Bariloche of Argentina the work of constructing a world model that encorporated the views expressed at the meeting.

A Committee was formed composed of Helio Jaguaribe, Carlos A. Mallmann, Enrique Oteiza, Jorge Sabato, Osvaldo Sunkel, Victor Urquidi, and Amilcar Herrera, which in September 1971 issued a paper giving in general terms the fundamental hypotheses and variables to be used in the Bariloche Model. This preliminary project was submitted to the annual meeting of the Consejo Latinoamericano de Ciencias Sociales (CLACSO), held in Buenos Aires in December 1971.

In mid-1971, a meeting was held at the Fundacion Bariloche, attended by the majority of the members of the Committee as well as by some of those who would later be involved as authors in the project. The meeting defined the essential features of the Model to be developed. The Committee appointed a Project Director, and entrusted him with the task of forming the group of specialists who would construct the model. In the final phase of the project Hugo Scolnik was appointed Co-Director of the project.

While an individual author has reported on the main task assigned him, this in no way reflects the real participation that each had in the work. The hypotheses and basic philosophy of the model were the product of a long and difficult collective task, and it is almost impossible to distinguish the individual contributions.

The initial group which gave rise to the project constituted itself thereafter into a Consulting Committee, with the mission of periodically carrying out a critical analysis of the progress of the work. Its criticisms and suggestions were a valuable contribution to the task performed. It is appropriate to point out that final responsibility for the ideas contained in the model is with the authors.

An initial contribution was received from the Club of Rome to carry out a study on the project's feasibility. Thereafter, the execution of the project was financed in full by the International Development Research Centre (IDRC), Ottawa, Canada. The authors wish to express their gratitude to both institutions for the total academic freedom given them.

Actions (login required)

View Item