What Do We Know About the Future Changes in the Proportions of Children and Elderly in Europe?

Lutz, W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7975-8145 & Scherbov, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0881-1073 (1999). What Do We Know About the Future Changes in the Proportions of Children and Elderly in Europe? IIASA Research Report (Reprint). IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: RR-00-005. Reprinted from Compendium of Family Studies in Austria 1999; Schriftenreihe Nr. 7, Austrian Institute for Family Studies, Vienna, Austria pp.123-139 (1999)

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Abstract

This report presents the first probabilistic population forecasts for the European Union following the approach of expert-based probabilistic projections as developed at IIASA. The central, high and low assumptions used for future fertility, mortality and migration correspond essentially to those of Eurostat. These high-low ranges were assumed to cover 67% and 90% of all future paths, depending on the model. The results show convincingly that very significant population aging over the coming decades is not just a scenario of unknown probability, but is practically a certainty. By 2050 the proportion above age 60 is likely to increase by about 60% whereas the proportion of children and youngsters will fall by about 20%. This trend is much less uncertain for the elderly than for the young.

Item Type:	Monograph (IIASA Research Report (Reprint))
Research Programs:	World Population (POP)
Bibliographic Reference:	Reprinted from Compendium of Family Studies in Austria 1999; Schriftenreihe Nr. 7, Austrian Institute for Family Studies, Vienna, Austria pp.123-139 (1999)
Depositing User:	IIASA Import
Date Deposited:	15 Jan 2016 02:11
Last Modified:	05 Aug 2023 05:00
URI:	https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/5941

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