Risk and Energy Systems: Deterministic versus Probabilistic Models

Winkler, R.L. (1973). Risk and Energy Systems: Deterministic versus Probabilistic Models. IIASA Research Memorandum. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: RM-73-002

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Abstract

At the conference on "Energy Systems" that was held in Baden July 17-20, 1973, the discussion regarding models and model-building was, for the most part, limited to deterministic models. Only at the end of the conference, in the discussion of "risk and reliability problems," was the question of deterministic models versus probabilistic models brought up. The brief discussion that ensued indicated that there exists some hesitancy on the part of model builders in the energy systems area to include probabilities in their models. Such model builders recognize the presence of uncertainty in the situations they are modeling, but they appear to feel uncomfortable about formally representing this uncertainty in terms of probabilities. This uncomfortable feeling may be due to several factors, including a lack of familiarity with probabilistic models, a question about the source of probabilities for probabilistic models, a feeling that deterministic models are perfectly adequate, and a concern that probabilistic models regarding energy systems would be too complex and difficult to handle.

Unfortunately, because the question of deterministic models versus probabilistic models arose so late in the conference, adequate time was not available for a full discussion of the question. Of course, a full discussion would require several days with many papers and presentations. Since that is not immediately feasible, this paper represents an attempt to present an overview of some of the issues that are involved in the question of deterministic models versus probabilistic models.

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