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Riahi, K. 
ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7193-3498 & Roehrl, R.A.
(2000).
Energy technology strategies for carbon dioxide mitigation and sustainable development.
Environmental Economics and Policy Studies 3 (2) 89-123. 10.1007/BF03354032.
Abstract
This paper analyzes a set of global energy-economic development scenarios for the 21st century. The set includes non-climate-policy scenarios that are part of the recent Special Report on Emissions Scenarios (SRES) of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). We apply climate policies to some of these scenarios to achieve stabilization of atmospheric CO2 concentrations at 550 parts per million by volume (ppmv). In particular, we analyze the robustness of technology portfolios under a wide range of possible future socioeconomic and technological outcomes. Clearly, the baseline assumptions determine the choice and costs of optimal emissions mitigation portfolios. The robustness analysis suggests that traditional electricity generation technologies based on fossil fuels are phased-out across all scenarios by 2100, with gas combined-cycle bridging the transition to more advanced fossil and zero-carbon technologies. Hydrogen fuel cells dominate the power sector in the sustainable development scenarios. In the transport sector, oil products will be phased-out but their future substitutes remain uncertain. Policies should preferably target a combination of sustainable development and accelerated technological change.
| Item Type: | Article |
|---|---|
| Uncontrolled Keywords: | Energy-economic scenarios, Emissions mitigation, Sustainable development, Energy technology strategies, IPCC SRES |
| Research Programs: | Energy (ENE) Transitions to New Technologies (TNT) Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies (ECS) |
| Bibliographic Reference: | Environmental Economics and Policy Studies; 3(2):89-123 (June 2000) (Published online 26 September 2014) |
| Depositing User: | IIASA Import |
| Date Deposited: | 15 Jan 2016 02:11 |
| Last Modified: | 27 Aug 2021 17:16 |
| URI: | https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/6004 |
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