Press-imistic Futures? - Science Based Concepts and Models to Assess the Long-term Competitiveness of Paper Products in the Information Age

Obersteiner, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6981-2769 & Nilsson, S. (2000). Press-imistic Futures? - Science Based Concepts and Models to Assess the Long-term Competitiveness of Paper Products in the Information Age. IIASA Interim Report. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: IR-00-059

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Abstract

Traditional forest sector models used for demand forecasts only predict some "average future" based on extrapolation of the past. However, innovation driven dynamic systems are likely to lead to technological equilibria that are far from this "average future." Thus, traditional models are incapable of assessing the full range of risks and opportunities in the market. Today, decision-makers need tools to explore and understand the system they operate in to be able to act as a pro-active market mover supported by rehearsed ex-ante strategies. In this paper we develop a simple scenario model to visualize possible future developments of information papers. Scenario forecasts are based on trajectories of population and economic growth, changes in life and work styles, substitution behavior, and technological change for individual population cohorts. Cohorts are split according to educational attainment, age, and gender. We also provide a theoretical background on the positive and negative feedback economies due to innovation and knowledge that are crucially determining the dynamics of the system. In a case study, we apply the model for one scenario of newsprint consumption in the USA. In addition, we present the methodology to plot the consumption pattern in a geographically explicit form using the concept of 'Paperscapes.'

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