Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Dynamics-as-Usual Scenario of Economic and Energy Development

Riahi, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7193-3498 & Roehrl, R.A. (2000). Greenhouse Gas Emissions in a Dynamics-as-Usual Scenario of Economic and Energy Development. IIASA Research Report (Reprint). IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: RR-00-016. Reprinted from Technological Forecasting and Social Change, 63:175-205 [2000]. 10.1016/S0040-1625(99)00111-0.

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Abstract

This article describes two greenhouse gas (GHG) scenarios covering the period 1990-2100. The first of these, the B2 scenario, is a successful attempt to provide an internally consistent quantification -- checked by the computer models Scenario Generator (SG), MESSAGE, MACRO, and MAGICC -- of key variables describing a plausible but unremarkable "storyline" that complements the other storylines discussed in this special issue of Technological Forecasting and Social Change.

In the B2 scenario global carbon emissions from energy use and industrial sources rise from 6.5 gigatons of carbon (GtC) in 1990 to 14.2 GtC in 2100. Primary energy use climbs from 350 exajoules (EJ) to 1,360 EJ. The global primary energy structure shifts away from gas and oil (28% in 2100 compared to 55% in 1990) and toward non-fossil energy sources (50% in 2100 compared to 18% in 1990). The share of coal is 22% in 2100, only four percentage points lower than in 1990. Among regions there are significant variations in the primary energy structure. Synthetic liquid production grows to 330 EJ in 2100, driven largely by assumptions about the long-term decline of oil and a continuation in current trends towards increasingly flexible, convenient, and cleaner forms of final energy.

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