Mozambique's Future: Modeling Population and Sustainable Development Challenges

Wils, A.B., da Costa Gaspar, M., Hellmuth, M., Ibraimo, M., Prommer, I., & Sebastiao, E. (2001). Mozambique's Future: Modeling Population and Sustainable Development Challenges. Executive Summary (2001)

Preview

Text XO-01-004.pdf Download (710kB) | Preview

Abstract

What are the prospects for sustainable development over the next 20 years in Mozambique? Although it looks as if much of the development prospects are determined by such inherently unpredictable events as war, peace, and weather calamities, there are also many changes and patterns which have a long-term stability and which change only slowly over time. For example, socio-demographic changes, such as labor force skills, and population health have a long momentum. These are very important indicators for the economic development potential of a country. Also, although it is impossible to predict a particular year of heavy rains or droughts, there are long time series of weather from which we can calculate the country's vulnerability to single- or multiple-year weather disasters.

To focus our efforts in answering this bold question, we concentrate on four issues: (1) Can poverty be erased in the next 20 years? (2) How will school enrollment lead to higher skills in the labor force by 2020? (3) What role will water play in development, in particular, water provision by rain to rural areas, and infrastructure to cities? (4) And, most importantly, what will be the impacts of the HIV/AIDS pandemic in the next decades?

Actions (login required)

View Item