A Scenario Analysis of China's Land Use and Land Cover Change: Incorporating Biophysical Information into Input-Output Modeling

Hubacek, K. & Sun, L. (2001). A Scenario Analysis of China's Land Use and Land Cover Change: Incorporating Biophysical Information into Input-Output Modeling. IIASA Research Report (Reprint). IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: RR-01-013. Reprinted from Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 12:367-397 [2001].

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Abstract

This paper assesses how widely perceived changes in the economy and society of China will affect future land use at the regional level. It also shows the consequences of these changes on future inter-regional and international trade flows of land-based products. In order to conduct an integrated and consistent assessment, we develop a mixed input-output model characterized by strong biophysical linkages and incorporation of supply-constraints to the major land-consuming sectors. The spatial aspect of the assessment is provided by a number of fairly large and detailed geographical databases implemented in a geographical information system, including biophysical attributes of land and demographic distribution.

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