The End of World Population Growth

Lutz, W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7975-8145, Sanderson, W.C., & Scherbov, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0881-1073 (2001). The End of World Population Growth. IIASA Research Report (Reprint). IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: RR-01-012. Reprinted from Nature; 412(6846):543-545 (2 August 2001) 10.1038/35087589.

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Abstract

There has been enormous concern about the consequences of human population growth for the environment and for social and economic development. But this growth is likely to come to an end in the foreseeable future. Improving on earlier methods of probabilistic forecasting, here we show that the world's population will stop growing before the end of the century. There is a 60 per cent probability that the world's population will not exceed 10 billion people before 2100, and around a 15 per cent probability that the world's population at the end of the century will be lower than it is today. For different regions, the date and size of the peak population will vary considerably.

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