Learning curves and technology assessment

McDonald, A. & Schrattenholzer, L. (2002). Learning curves and technology assessment. International Journal of Technology Management 23 (7) 718-745. 10.1504/IJTM.2002.003035.

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This paper uses the formal concept of learning curves to analyze regular behavior of performance improvements in various energy technologies. The concept allows the estimation of a single indicator of technological progress, the learning rate, which expresses the constant percentage improvement (usually in terms of cost reductions) in a technology for each doubling of the technologies cumulative installed capacity. We present 42 energy-related learning rates, either calculated directly from available data or assembled from the literature. We elaborate briefly on eight of these to illustrate issues addressed by technology assessments to convert these raw historical learning rates into prospective learning rate distributions for use in long-term energy models. The paper includes a sensitivity analysis of policy- relevant variables with respect to learning rates, a discussion of possible extensions and limitations of the approach and an outlook on future work in the field.

Item Type: Article
Research Programs: Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies (ECS)
Bibliographic Reference: International Journal of Technology Management; 23(7/8):718-745 (1 July 2002)
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 02:14
Last Modified: 27 Aug 2021 17:17
URI: https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/6585

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