The End of Population Growth in Asia

Lutz, W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7975-8145 & Scherbov, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0881-1073 (2002). The End of Population Growth in Asia. IIASA Interim Report. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: IR-02-060

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Abstract

This paper presents probabilistic population projections for five regions of Asia (South Asia, Central Asia, China region, Pacific OECD and Pacific Asia) and Asia as a whole. Over this century, Asia will experience a very heterogeneous demographic development: Central Asia is still expected to almost double its population and South Asia will become by far the worlds most populous region, rapidly surpassing the China region. Simultaneously, todays Pacific OECD countries are likely to shrink in size and experience extreme population aging. The proportion of the population above age 60 in these countries (with Japan having the greatest weight) is expected to reach an incredible 50 percent of the total population (with the 95 percent uncertainty interval ranging from 35 to 61 percent). The China region will experience a more rapid speed of aging with the proportion above age 60 expected to increase by a factor of four from 10 percent in 2000 to 39 percent in 2100.

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