Level and Trend Uncertainties of Kyoto Relevant Greenhouse Gases in Poland

Gawin, R. (2002). Level and Trend Uncertainties of Kyoto Relevant Greenhouse Gases in Poland. IIASA Interim Report. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: IR-02-045

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Abstract

The Kyoto Protocol is often described as a good first step towards reducing greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions into the atmosphere. The Protocol endorses emissions trading, joint implementation including "bubbling" between Annex I Parties, an a clean development mechanism that allows Annex I and non-Annex I Parties to act together to reduce emissions. However, the anticipated permit market will not function if uncertainties are not rigorously assessed and considered in any compliance process. With no reliable verification tool, it is impossible to effectively assess the different mechanisms and activities mentioned under the Protocol. Thus, it is very important to study the uncertainties underlying the Kyoto relevant GHGs, here with reference to Poland, because without the consideration of uncertainty robust verification can not occur.

This paper presents information about the data used in the calculations as well as the methods favored by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC). The so-called Tier 1 method of the IPCC for the evaluation of uncertainties is described in more detail.

This paper also provides a first quantitative overview on the Polish uncertainties of three Kyoto relevant GHGs, namely CO2, CH4, and N2O, for 1988, 1990 and 1999. The main goals of the paper are to present the analytical calculations as well as additional calculations that are carried out to improve the evaluation of uncertainties. Recommendations are presented to reach these goals.

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