Application of the Kalman Filter to Cyclone Forecasting: 1. Methodology, 2. Typhoon Forecasting

Takeuchi, K. (1976). Application of the Kalman Filter to Cyclone Forecasting: 1. Methodology, 2. Typhoon Forecasting. IIASA Research Memorandum. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: RM-76-009

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Abstract

The Kalman filtering technique was applied to the problem of cyclone forecasting. This paper presents the methodology and the preliminary results of typhoon experiments. Further typhoon experiments and hurricane experiments will be reported in a forthcoming paper.

The purpose of the study is to establish a methodology which will better utilize existing models. In this paper, the SFC.700 mb model and SNT models, developed respectively by Dr. Arakawa and the Japan Meteorological Agency, were selected as examples of existing models. The case study was conducted using the typhoon data observed in August 1974. The results, the improvement of the performance of original models, were demonstrated in terms of the percent reduction in prediction errors which appeared to be 30% to 50% on an average. Improvement of the 24 hour forecast is recognized more than that of the 12 hour forecast. The Kalman filter application is concluded to be promising in tropical cyclone forecast problems in the sense that it improves the performance of any models whose residual errors are correlated.

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