Future Demographic Change in Europe: The Contribution of Migration

Lutz, W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7975-8145 & Scherbov, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0881-1073 (2003). Future Demographic Change in Europe: The Contribution of Migration. IIASA Interim Report. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: IR-03-066

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Abstract

The paper quantitatively assesses the effects of possible alternative future migration trends in the European Union (EU-15) on population growth and ageing until 2050. In particular, it views the uncertainty about future migration trends in the context of the range of possible future fertility and mortality trends. This is first done by comparing two sets of probabilistic population projections, a "regular" one including immigration, and hypothetical "no migration" case assuming a closed population. In the second part we consider the question to what extent immigration can compensate for the low birth rates in Europe by combining seven alternative fertility-level scenarios with four migration scenarios. The results show a distinct compensatory effect for both total population size and the old-age dependency ratio: 100,000 additional immigrants per year have the same effect as an increase in the total fertility rate by 0.1 children per woman on the average.

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