Spatial and Dynamic Modeling of Flood Management Policies in the Upper Tisza

Brouwers, L. (2003). Spatial and Dynamic Modeling of Flood Management Policies in the Upper Tisza. IIASA Interim Report. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: IR-03-002

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Abstract

Flood management policy has been the subject of an international joint research project with the Upper Tisza in Hungary as its pilot study area. Design specifications for a geographically explicit simulation are presented. Potential flood management policies, based on surveys and interviews with stakeholders, are presented. Some experiments on an executable prototype of the simulation model are also reported on, where the consequences of flood management policies are investigated. Focus has been on financial policy measures, mainly insurance. Besides more traditional evaluation of policy scenarios, the model incorporates adaptive optimization functionality. The report incorporates three contributions: (1) the insurance policy issue in Hungary is framed in the broader context of flood management; (2) the structuring of a flood risk policy model, capable of simulating flood failures and estimating the economic consequences; (3) reports from policy experiments performed on the implemented prototype flood risk policy model.

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