Energy planning methodologies and tools

Schrattenholzer, L. (2004). Energy planning methodologies and tools. In: Theory and Practices for Energy Education, Training, Regulation and Standards. Eolss Publishers: Developed under the Auspices of the UNESCO.

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As with any tool, it is useful to look ahead before choosing an energy planning tool. Also, there will usually be choice between different tools that all might, at least in principle, serve the energy planning task to be addressed with the tool. To facilitate efficient selection of a tool, it is important to specify not only the overall purpose of using the tool, but also to formulate specific questions. Here it is argued that one criterion for the selection of a tool should be the simplest and gives relevant answers to the questions raised. In many situations of energy planning, uncertainty is an important aspect. Although stochastic models address uncertainty by design, it should be remembered that for this type of models to be really useful, the probability distributions built into the model should be known, at least within reasonable limits. If they are not, the uncertainty is just shifted from the model parameters to the parameters of a class of probability distributions. Care must also be taken when assessing model validity. The so-called "back-casting" (running the model for the past to check whether it correctly produces actually observed values) fails to produce much evidence if it is possible to specify model parameters with the benefit of hindsight. One strategy to stay clear of the pitfalls of modeling would be to attempt to learn from a model in a way that the lessons learned would be explainable without explaining the model.

Item Type: Book Section
Uncontrolled Keywords: Energy policy; Models; Planning tools; Scenarios; Optimization; Simulation; Uncertainty; Reserves and resources
Research Programs: Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies (ECS)
Bibliographic Reference: In:; Theory and Practices for Energy Education, Training, Regulation and Standards; Developed under the Auspices of the UNESCO, Eolss Publishers, Oxford, UK (2004)
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Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 02:16
Last Modified: 27 Aug 2021 17:18

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