A Cross-Impact Gaming Approach to Global Modeling

Helmer, O. (1977). A Cross-Impact Gaming Approach to Global Modeling. IIASA Working Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: WP-77-001

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Abstract

An approach to simulation gaming is presented, with particular reference to global modeling. The approach is generic in character and can, in principle, be applied to any long-range planning area. In contrast to system-dynamics and to customary econometric models, the proposed "cross impact" gaming permits consideration of events (such as technological breakthroughs, natural catastrophes, and acts of legislation) in addition to trends (such as population growth and energy consumption), and it does so in a probabilistic setting that provides appropriate emphasis for the uncertainties of the future. The so-called cross impacts refer to the effects of events on the probability of other event occurrences and on deviations of trends from their anticipated courses, and similarly to the effects of trend changes on other trends and on probabilities of event occurrences. By including, in particular, actions (i.e., moves by participating players) among the events, it becomes possible to explore both the direct impact and the long-term consequences of alternative policies. In light of this, cross-impact gaming may be considered a pre-analytical approach that may provide intuitive insights valuable for a full-fledged systems-analytical investigation.

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