Methods of Systems Analysis for Long-Term Energy Development

Kononov, Y.D. (1977). Methods of Systems Analysis for Long-Term Energy Development. IIASA Collaborative Paper. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: CP-77-002

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Abstract

A constructive systems approach to long-term energy development forecasting (for 30 to 40 years) is elaborated and the main methods and mathematical models for implementing it are proposed. They are:

-- An intersector model and method for long-term forecasting of basic indices of economic growth and national economic estimation of energy development strategies;

-- An iterative scheme and optimization model for elaborating possible energy development strategies and comparison of tendencies in science and technology;

-- A statistical model for forecasting final energy demand based on existing dynamics of the main indices of economic growth.

These models and methods are tested on preliminary information.

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