Global Supply for Carbon Sequestration: Identifying Least-Cost Afforestation Sites Under Country Risk Consideration

Benitez, P.C., McCallum, I. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5812-9988, Obersteiner, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-6981-2769, & Yamagata, Y. (2004). Global Supply for Carbon Sequestration: Identifying Least-Cost Afforestation Sites Under Country Risk Consideration. IIASA Interim Report. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: IR-04-022

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Abstract

We have provided a framework for Identifying least-cost sites for carbon sequestration and deriving carbon sequestration cost curves at a global level in a scenario of limited information. The method is based on determining sequestration costs for geographical explicit units (50km grid cells), based on GIS parameters on land-use and ecosystem properties, and aggregated economic data. Special attention is given to country risk considerations and the sensitivity to special datasets. Our model results suggest that within 20 years and considering a carbon price of $50/tC, afforestation could offset one year of global carbon emissions in the energy sector. However, if we account for country risk considerations - associated with political, economic and and financial risks - the carbon supply is reduced to about 60%. With respect to the geography of supply, illustrated by grid-scale maps, we find that most least-cost projects projects are located in Africa, South America and Asia, assuming a 5% discount rate without risk. Once risk is factored into the equation, these countries become more expensive to operate in.

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