Policies addressing the tempo effect in low-fertility countries

Lutz, W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7975-8145 & Skirbekk, V. (2005). Policies addressing the tempo effect in low-fertility countries. Population and Development Review 31 (4) 699-720. 10.1111/j.1728-4457.2005.00094.x.

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Abstract

The possible negative consequences of current low fertility levels are causing increasing concern, particularly in countries where the total fertility rate is below 1.5. Social inertia and self-reinforcing processes may make it difficult to return to higher levels once fertility has been very low for some time, creating a possible "low-fertility trap." Policies explicitly addressing the fertility-depressing effect of increases in the mean age at childbearing (the tempo effect) may be a way to raise period fertility to somewhat higher levels and help escape the "low-fertility trap" before it closes. Reforms in the school system may affect the timing of childbearing by lowering the age at completion of education. A more efficient school system, which provides the same qualifications with a younger school-leaving age, is potentially capable of increasing period fertility and hence exerting a rejuvenating effect on the age composition, even if the levels of cohort fertility remain unchanged. Such policies may also have a positive effect on completed cohort fertility.

Item Type:	Article
Research Programs:	World Population (POP)
Bibliographic Reference:	Population and Development Review; 31(4):699-720 (December 2005)
Depositing User:	IIASA Import
Date Deposited:	15 Jan 2016 02:17
Last Modified:	05 Aug 2023 05:00
URI:	https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/7496

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