Simulating Future Global Deforestation Using Geographically Explicit Mode

Witmer, F. (2005). Simulating Future Global Deforestation Using Geographically Explicit Mode. IIASA Interim Report. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: IR-05-010

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Abstract

What might the spatial distribution of forests look like in 2100? Global deforestation continues to be a significant component of human activity affecting both the terrestrial and atmospheric environments. This work models the relationship between people and forests using two approaches. Initially, a brief global scale analysis of recent historical trends is conducted. The remainder of the paper then focuses on current population densities as determinants of cumulative historical deforestation. Spatially explicit models are generated and used to generate two possible scenarios of future deforestation. The results suggest that future deforestation in tropical Africa may be considerably worse than deforestation in Amazonia.

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