Sustainable global automobile transport in the 21st century: an integrated scenario analysis

Turton, H. (2006). Sustainable global automobile transport in the 21st century: an integrated scenario analysis. Technological Forecasting and Social Change 73 (6) 607-629. 10.1016/j.techfore.2005.10.001.

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Transport represents a significant threat to long-term sustainable development, and is one of the fastest-growing consumers of final energy and sources of greenhouse gas emissions. Moreover, transport is heavily reliant on petroleum, a limited resource that is also associated with geopolitical risks to security of supply. Together, threats to the global environment and limited resource availability warrant a closer examination of possible pathways to a sustainable transport system. This study describes a sustainable automobile transport scenario based on the SRES B2 scenario, but with key demographic and economic drivers updated to incorporate developments between 1990 and 2000, and revisions to population projections. Multiple sustainable development objectives are incorporated, including: i) continuing economic growth, with a moderate reduction in disparities in income between different world regions; ii) maintaining a buffer of oil and gas resources to enhance security of energy supply, both globally and in vulnerable regions; iii) abating greenhouse gas emissions to ensure atmospheric CO2 concentrations do not exceed double pre-industrial levels; and iv) ensuring global mobility demands are met, without resorting to assumptions about a large counter-trend shift to public transport or lower travel demand. We then explore the technological, economic, fuel production and infrastructure implications of realizing this scenario over the long term. This provides a number of policy insights by identifying critical developments required for the emergence of a sustainable global passenger transport and energy system.

Item Type: Article
Research Programs: Environmentally Compatible Energy Strategies (ECS)
Energy (ENE)
Bibliographic Reference: Technological Forecasting and Social Change; 73(6): 607-629 [2006]
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 02:19
Last Modified: 27 Aug 2021 17:19

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