The Projected Influence of Climate Change on the South African Wine Industry

Carter, S. (2006). The Projected Influence of Climate Change on the South African Wine Industry. IIASA Interim Report. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: IR-06-043

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Abstract

The wine industry is an integral part of the Western Capes economy, contributing just over 8% to Gross Provincial Product (GPP). The intensive labour required by the industry also provides employment for semi-skilled labour. Changes in climate induced by global warming are likely to affect many aspects of this industry. Current regional projections of rising temperatures and decreased precipitation ((Midgley et al, 2005; New, 2002) will put pressure on both the phenological development of the vines and on the necessary water resources for irrigation and production. This study examines these effects using three statistically downscaled GCM projections for the mid 21st century. The purpose is to ascertain the likely impacts on this industry under future climate stressors. The emphasis is placed on water related variables, mostly precipitation and derivatives thereof. A short summary of possible mitigation and adaptation strategies concludes the report.

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