Malawi's Future Human Capital: Is the Country on Track to Meeting the MDGs on Education?

Fotso, J-C. (2006). Malawi's Future Human Capital: Is the Country on Track to Meeting the MDGs on Education? IIASA Interim Report. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: IR-06-020

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Abstract

This study uses demographic and multi-state population projections to estimate the future population structure by age, sex and educational attainment in Malawi, and importantly, to assess the likelihood of meeting the Millennium Development Goals (MDG) related to universal primary education and gender disparity no later than 2015. Data from the 1998 and 1987 censuses, and from the 1992 and 2000 Malawi Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) are used. First, we examine school enrollment ratios, repetition and dropout rates, and educational attainment, as well as differentials in infant and child mortality by level of the mother's education. Second, we estimate fertility, mortality, and educational transition rates from the DHS. Third, we estimate the population structure in 2000 and then perform forward projections to 2015. Finally, we examine the percentage distribution of the projected population by level of education. Malawi is one of the poorest countries in sub-Saharan Africa, with a population close to 10 million as of 2000. Less than 80 percent of the 6-14 year old children are still in school, and only 15 percent of those aged 14-17 have completed primary school.

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