Long-term Energy Scenarios for the Industry Sector: Use of Physical Indicators

Schenk, N.J. (2006). Long-term Energy Scenarios for the Industry Sector: Use of Physical Indicators. IIASA Interim Report. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: IR-06-014

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Abstract

In this paper, we describe an industrial energy demand projection model, which we developed as a tool to generate scenarios of global as well as regional industrial energy demand until 2100. The prime element in the model is projection of industrial energy intensity development. In defining industrial energy intensity, we used physical production data, instead of monetary output data, to represent the level of industrial activities. The use of physical output data enabled us to incorporate some important features into long-term energy demand scenario development. The model relates a given level of GDP per capita with industrial production, and then with industrial energy demand.

The model was applied to dynamics-as-usual scenarios for Western Europe and Centrally Planned Asia & China. 13 separate industry sub-sectors were analysed. The analysis shows that past and future structural changes in the Western European industries are characterised by an increase of the lighter industries and a decrease of the heavier industries (except for the chemicals industries). The analysis shows that past and future structural changes in Centrally Planned Asia & China are characterised by relatively slow growth in the steel industry, and relatively high growth in several other industry sectors.

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