The Contribution of Migration to Europe's Demographic Future: Projections for the EU-25 to 2050

Lutz, W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7975-8145 & Scherbov, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0881-1073 (2007). The Contribution of Migration to Europe's Demographic Future: Projections for the EU-25 to 2050. IIASA Interim Report. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: IR-07-024

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Abstract

This paper quantifies the extent to which different assumptions about net migration gains in the European Union contribute to future population growth and to diminishing the rate of population aging. This is done first in the context of probabilistic population projections, where the results of a model based on the full uncertainty distributions in fertility, mortality and migration are contrasted to an otherwise identical model in which a closed population is assumed, i.e., without migration gains or losses. The results show that without migration gains, Europe would be headed towards continuous population shrinkage. As a second approach, 25 scenarios are specified that combine five alternative future fertility levels (ranging from total fertility rates of 0.8 to 2.4) with five alternative migration levels (ranging from zero to 2.0 million annual net migration gains). The results show that fertility and migration have a compensatory relationship where, around the middle of the considered range, a fertility rate that is constantly 0.1 children higher has the same effect on the old-age dependency ratio as an additional constant annual migration gain of 375,000 at the level of the EU-25 by 2050.

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