Projection of Populations by Level of Educational Attainment, Age and Sex for 120 Countries for 2005-2050

K.C., S., Barakat, B., Goujon, A. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-4125-6857, Skirbekk, V., & Lutz, W. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7975-8145 (2008). Projection of Populations by Level of Educational Attainment, Age and Sex for 120 Countries for 2005-2050. IIASA Interim Report. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: IR-08-038

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Abstract

Using demographic multi-state methods, this paper presents projections for the population of 120 countries (covering 93 percent of the world population in 2000) by age, sex and level of educational attainment for the years 2000 to 2050. The dataset produced gives the full educational attainment distributions for four categories (no education, primary, secondary and tertiary education) by five-year age groups, with definitions that are consistent with a previous reconstruction of educational attainment for the years 1970 to 2000. Based on empirical distributions of educational attainment by age and sex for the year 2000, the method moves along cohort lines while taking into account differentials in fertility and mortality by education level. The most extensive in time and geographical coverage to date, to our knowledge this work represents the first attempt to project future educational attainment trends based on a statistical model of historical international attainment growth. The resulting dataset provides valuable insights both on the feasibility of international education targets and on their implications for human capital and population size and age structure.

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