Spatial persistence of demographic shocks and economic growth

Azomahou, T., Diebolt, C., & Mishra, T. (2009). Spatial persistence of demographic shocks and economic growth. Journal of Macroeconomics 31 (1) 98-127. 10.1016/j.jmacro.2007.08.013.

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Abstract

This paper studies the spatial effects of (stochastic) demographic system on economic growth. Population growth shocks (irrespective of aggregate or disaggregate form) depict spatial movement that is deemed to contribute to economic growth fluctuations of many countries depending upon their convergence properties to the long-run level. Proposing a step further from the recent emphasis of temporal analysis of demographic system, this paper examines the persistence properties of economic growth by embedding temporal dynamic characteristics of the demographic system in a spatial vector autoregressive model. We construct 'demographic distance' metrics based on both average age-shares and the stochastic time series characteristics of aggregate and disaggregated population growth and show that demographic dynamics in the last four decades have had discernible effects on volatility and non-linearity in cross-country economic growth.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Demographic dynamics; Economic growth; Long-memory; Spatial persistence
Research Programs:	World Population (POP) Postdoctoral Scholars (PDS)
Bibliographic Reference:	Journal of Macroeconomics; 31(1):98-127 (March 2009)
Depositing User:	IIASA Import
Date Deposited:	15 Jan 2016 08:42
Last Modified:	27 Aug 2021 17:38
URI:	https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/8877

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