Future Trends in the Prevalence of Severe Activity Limitations in Developed Countries

Sanderson, W.C. & Scherbov, S. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-0881-1073 (2009). Future Trends in the Prevalence of Severe Activity Limitations in Developed Countries. IIASA Interim Report. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: IR-09-047

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Abstract

Life expectancies at older ages continue to increase in most developed countries. But how these additonal years will be divided between those with and without severe question is important for a variety of issues including the ability of people to continue working in the labor market at ever older ages and forecasting the growth of health care expenditures.

We use the harmonized data on severe activity limitations from the Survey of Income and Living Conditons (SILC) and predicted life tables from the United Nations to produce forecasts of demographic quatities that take the prevalence of severe activity limitations into account. For developed countres, we provide forecasts of (1) age-specific proportions of remaining lifetimes at age 65 spent without severe activity limitations, (2) the proportions of populations 60+ years old with severe activity limitations, and (3) a new dependency ratio called the Genuine Adult Dependency Ratio (GADR) that takes severe activity limitations into account.

We show that, on average, life expectancies without severe activity limitations at age 65 in high income OECD countries are likely to increase by around 2.7 years between 2005-2010 and 2045-2050. Proportions of 60+ populations with severe activity limitations are likely to be only marginally higher in 2045-2050 than in 2005-2010. We also show that the speed of increase of the Genuine Adult Dependency Ratio is around one-fifth as fast as the conventional old age dependency ratio.

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