GHG Mitigation Potential in U.S. Transportation

Bickford, E. (2009). GHG Mitigation Potential in U.S. Transportation. IIASA Interim Report. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: IR-09-045

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Abstract

This study used GAINS Annex I transportation data for the U.S. to quantify carbon dioxide mitigation potential in the on-road transport sector for a range of aggressive fuel-efficient vehicle technology penetration scenarios focusing on 2020 and 2030. A cost-benefit sensitivity analysis was also conducted to determine each penetration scenario's "net extra cost" sensitivity to uncertainties in future fuel prices and technology investment costs. Results showed carbon dioxide reductions from increased vehicle fuel-efficiency of up to 7 percent relative to 2006 U.S. fossil fuel emissions levels, were achievable in 2030 for the technology scenarios analyzed. The net extra costs for the entire on-road vehicle fleet in all scenarios were negative, and cost-benefit sensitivity analysis showed that the on-road fleet is surprisingly robust against uncertain future fuel prices and investment costs. A break-even endpoint analysis revealed the on-road fleet could experience up to a 60 percent increase in investment costs, or up to a 40 percent decrease in fuel prices and still maintain negative or break-even net extra costs in 2020, in other words conclusions and recommendations are very robust.

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