Risk Hedging Strategies under Energy System and Climate Policy Uncertainties

Krey, V. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-0307-3515 & Riahi, K. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0001-7193-3498 (2009). Risk Hedging Strategies under Energy System and Climate Policy Uncertainties. IIASA Interim Report. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: IR-09-028

[thumbnail of IR-09-028.pdf]

Download (668kB) | Preview


The future development of the energy sector is rife with uncertainties. They concern virtually the entire energy chain, from resource extraction to conversion technologies, energy demand, and the stringency of future environmental policies. Investment decisions today need thus not only to be cost-effective from the present perspective, but have to take into account also the imputed future risks of above uncertainties. This paper introduces a newly developed modeling decision framework with endogenous representation of above uncertainties. We employ stochastic modeling techniques within a system engineering model of the global energy system and implement several alternative representations of risk.

We aim to identify salient characteristics of least-cost risk hedging strategies that are adapted to considerably reduce future risks and are hence robust against a wide range of future uncertainties. These lead to significant changes in response to energy system and carbon price uncertainties, in particular, (i) higher short- to medium-term investments into advanced technologies, (ii) pronounced emissions reductions, and (iii) diversification of the technology portfolio.

From a methodological perspective, we find that there are strong interactions and synergies between different types of uncertainties. Cost-effective risk hedging strategies thus need to take a holistic view and comprehensively account for all uncertainties jointly. With respect to costs, relatively modest risk premiums (or hedging investments) can significantly reduce the vulnerability of the energy system against the associated uncertainties. The extent of early investments, diversification and emissions reductions, however, depends on the risk premium that decision makers are willing to pay to respond to prevailing uncertainties, and remains thus one of the key policy variables.

Item Type: Monograph (IIASA Interim Report)
Research Programs: Energy (ENE)
Transitions to New Technologies (TNT)
Greenhouse Gas Initiative (GGI)
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 08:43
Last Modified: 27 Aug 2021 17:21
URI: https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/9121

Actions (login required)

View Item View Item