Household Projections for Rural and Urban Areas of Major Regions of the World

Jiang, L. & O'Neill, B.C. (2009). Household Projections for Rural and Urban Areas of Major Regions of the World. IIASA Interim Report. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: IR-09-026

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Abstract

Demographic dynamics are important drivers of environmental change, including effects on climate through energy and land use that lead to emissions of greenhouse gases. These dynamics include changes to population size, age structure, and urbanization, as well as changes in household living arrangements. Population and household projections are therefore essential for investigating potential future demographic effects, but no long-term, global projections exist that simultaneously describe consistent outcomes for population, urbanization, and households. We therefore develop a new set of population/household projections for nine world regions. The projections are based partly on existing population and urbanization projections, partly on new multi-state projections for China and India, and on a new household projection using age-, size-, and urban/rural-specific headship rates. We discuss principle results that foresee future aging, urbanization, and trends toward smaller household sizes.

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