Projections of air pollutant emissions and its impacts on regional air quality in China in 2020

Xing, J., Wang, S.X., Chatani, S., Zhang, C.Y., Wei, W., Hao, J.M., Klimont, Z. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2630-198X, Cofala, J., & Amann, M. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0002-1963-0972 (2010). Projections of air pollutant emissions and its impacts on regional air quality in China in 2020. Atmospheric Chemistry and Physics 10 (11) 26891-26929. 10.5194/acpd-10-26891-2010.

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Abstract

Anthropogenic emissions of air pollutants in China influence not only local and regional environments but also the global atmospheric environment; therefore, it is important to understand how China's air pollutant emissions will change and how they will affect regional air quality in the future. Emission scenarios in 2020 were projected using forecasts of energy consumption and emission control strategies based on emissions in 2005, and on recent development plans for key industries in China. We developed four emission scenarios: REF[0] (current control legislations and implementation status), PC[0] (improvement of energy efficiencies and current environmental legislation), PC[1] (improvement of energy efficiencies and better implementation of environmental legislation), and PC[2] (improvement of energy efficiencies and strict environmental legislation). Under the REF[0] scenario, the emission of SO2, NOx, VOC and NH3 will increase by 17%, 50%, 49% and 18% in 2020, while PM will be reduced by 10% over East China, compared to that in 2005. In PC[2], sustainable energy polices will reduce SO2, NOx and PM10 emissions by 4.1 Tg, 2.6 Tg and 1.8 Tg, respectively; better implementation of current control policies will reduce SO2, NOx and PM10 emission by 2.9 Tg, 1.8 Tg, and 1.4 Tg, respectively; strict emission standards will reduce SO2, NOx and PM10 emissions by 3.2 Tg, 3.9 Tg, and 1.7 Tg, respectively. Under the PC[2] scenario, SO2 and PM10 emissions will decrease by 18% and 38%, while NOx and VOC emissions will increase by 3% and 8%, compared to that in 2005. Future air quality in China was simulated using the Community Multi-scale Air Quality Model (CMAQ) with 2005 emissions and 2020 emission scenarios. Under REF[0] emissions, the concentrations of SO2, NO2, hourly maximum ozone in summer, PM2.5, total sulfur and nitrogen depositions will increase by 5~47%, 45~53%, 8~12%, 4~15%, 4~37% and 7~14%, respectively, over East China. Under the PC[2] emission scenario, the concentrations of SO2, NO2, hourly maximal ozone in summer, PM2.5, total sulfur and nitrogen depositions will change by -28%~16%, -1%~11%, 1%~2%, -24%~-12%, -24%~13%, and 0~3%, respectively. The individual impacts of SO2, NOx, NH3, NMVOC and primary PM emission changes on ozone and PM2.5 concentrations have been analyzed using sensitivity analysis. The results suggest that NOx emission control need to be enhanced during the summertime to obtain both ozone and PM2.5 reduction benefits. NH3 emission controls should also be considered in order to reduce total nitrogen deposition in the future.

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