Multi-agent simulation of adoption of alternative fuels

van Vliet, O., Vries, B. de, Faaij, A., Turkenburg, W., & Jager, W. (2010). Multi-agent simulation of adoption of alternative fuels. Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment 15 (6) 326-342. 10.1016/j.trd.2010.03.006.

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We have formalized and parameterized a model for the production of six transport fuels and six fuels blends from six feedstocks through 13 different production chains, and their adoption of by 11 distinct subpopulations of motorists. The motorists are represented by agents that use heuristics to choose a fuel on the basis of three attributes and a socal feedback loop. Adoption of specific fuels is mostly driven by price differences, but other factors play a role if prices are similar. The results are not always intuitive and do not always show up immediately. We find that sustained combinations of interventions are required to bring about a transition away from petrol or diesel. Adoption of alternative fuels was most often confined to niche markets with a share of 5% or lower. Only in a single case was a complete fuel transition observed.

Item Type: Article
Uncontrolled Keywords: Agent-based modelling; Automotive fuels; Biofuels; Energy transition; Innovation diffusion
Research Programs: Energy (ENE)
Bibliographic Reference: Transportation Research Part D: Transport and Environment; 15(6):326-342 (August 2010) (Published online 27 August 2010)
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 08:44
Last Modified: 27 Aug 2021 17:21

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