The Factors and Magnitude of Urbanization under Unchanged Natural Increase and Migration Patterns

Ledent, J. (1978). The Factors and Magnitude of Urbanization under Unchanged Natural Increase and Migration Patterns. IIASA Research Memorandum. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: RM-78-057

Preview

Text RM-78-057.pdf Download (1MB) | Preview

Abstract

This paper is the second of a series intended to shed some light on the urbanization phenomenon. Its main purpose is to contrast the results provided by two alternative models--the model proposed by Keyfitz (1978) and the continuous version of the multiregional model of population growth and distribution developed by Rogers (1968)--under constant regimes of natural increase and migration.

In both cases, the evolution of the magnitude of urbanization as well as that of the relative importance of natural increase and migration in accounting for urban growth are examined. A particular emphasis is placed on the time spans necessary to reach two cross-over points| the point at which natural increase starts exceeding in-migration in the urban region (cross-over point of type I) and the point at which the urban population becomes larger than the rural population (cross-over point of type II).

The contrast between the alternative models is illustrated with the help of an application to two actual rural-urban population systems presenting polar characteristics| those of the USSR and India.

Actions (login required)

View Item