The use of scenarios as the basis for combined assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation

van Vuuren, D.P., Isaac, M., Kundzewicz, Z.W., Arnell, N.W., Barker, T., Criqui, P., Berkhout, F., Hilderink, H., Hinkel, J., Hof, A., Kitous, A., Kram, T., Mechler, R. ORCID: https://orcid.org/0000-0003-2239-1578, & Scrieciu, S. (2011). The use of scenarios as the basis for combined assessment of climate change mitigation and adaptation. Global Environmental Change 21 (2) 575-591. 10.1016/j.gloenvcha.2010.11.003.

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Abstract

Scenarios are used to explore the consequences of different adaptation and mitigation strategies under uncertainty. In this paper, two scenarios are used to explore developments with (1) no mitigation leading to an increase of global mean temperature of 4 degrees Celsius by 2100 and (2) an ambitious mitigation strategy leading to 2 degrees Celsius increase by 2100. For the second scenario, uncertainties in the climate system imply that a global mean temperature increase of 3 degrees Celsius or more cannot be ruled out. Our analysis shows that, in many cases, adaptation and mitigation are not trade-offs but supplements. For example, the number of people exposed to increased water resource stress due to climate change can be substantially reduced in the mitigation scenario, but adaptation will still be required for the remaining large numbers of people exposed to increased stress. Another example is sea level rise, for which, from a global and purely monetary perspective, adaptation (up to 2100) seems more effective than mitigation. From the perspective of poorer and small island countries, however, stringent mitigation is necessary to keep risks at manageable levels. For agriculture, only a scenario based on a combination of adaptation and mitigation is able to avoid serious climate change impacts.

Item Type:	Article
Uncontrolled Keywords:	Scenarios; Integrated assessment; Climate change; Mitigation; Adaptation; Climate impacts
Research Programs:	Risk, Policy and Vulnerability (RPV) Risk & Resilience (RISK)
Bibliographic Reference:	Global Environmental Change; 21(2):575-591 (May 2011) (Published online 22 December 2010)
Depositing User:	IIASA Import
Date Deposited:	15 Jan 2016 08:45
Last Modified:	27 Aug 2021 17:21
URI:	https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/9601

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