A Common Framework for Integrating Economic and Ecologic Dimensions of Human Ecosystems. III: Policy, Uncertainty, Analysis

Clapham, W.B. & Pestel, R.F. (1978). A Common Framework for Integrating Economic and Ecologic Dimensions of Human Ecosystems. III: Policy, Uncertainty, Analysis. IIASA Research Memorandum. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: RM-78-031

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Abstract

Policy and uncertainty are the two aspects of human ecosystems such as agriculture which are the most difficult to capture in models of those systems and which are most important factors in their evolution. Policy may be direct or indirect, and both forms can have strong effects on system behavior. But these effects are not always obvious or clearly interpreted. Policy is generally directed toward specific short-term phenomena, and the momentum and inertia of many parts of agricultural systems are such that it is often impossible to distinguish system-generated from policy-generated change. Likewise, the path of policy implementation through the system as a whole may lead to broader impact and rather different results from those planned by the decision-maker. A multilevel hierarchical view of the human ecosystem shows the natural phenomena of the environent responding to control by farmers and views society as a policy-making system which attempts to guide or control the farmer. This enables the analyst to clarify many of the problems of complexity inherent in analyses of human ecosystems. It provides a common framework for the analysis of economic and ecological (among other) dimensions of the system, and that framework is suitable for technology assessment, policy assessment, and policy design.

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