Cost-effective Emission Reductions to Improve Air Quality in Europe in 2020: Background paper

Amann, M. ORCID:, Bertok, I., Borken-Kleefeld, J. ORCID:, Cofala, J., Heyes, C. ORCID:, Höglund-Isaksson, L. ORCID:, Klimont, Z. ORCID:, Rafaj, P. ORCID:, et al. (2011). Cost-effective Emission Reductions to Improve Air Quality in Europe in 2020: Background paper. [[CIAM-Report]], Version 2.1. CIAM, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria (31 March 2011)

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The Convention on Long-range Transboundary Air Pollution has embarked on the revision of its Gothenburg multi-pollutant/multi-effect protocol. To inform negotiations about the scope for further cost-effective measures, this report presents a series of emission control scenarios that illustrate options for cost-effective improvements of air quality in Europe.

Europe-wide coherent projections of economic activities envisage considerable changes in the structure of economic activities. Together with continuing implementation of already agreed emission control legislation, these would lead to significant impacts on future air pollution emissions. In 2020 baseline SO2 emissions in the EMEP modelling domain are expected to be approximately 35% lower than in 2000; NOx and VOC emissions would be 40% and PM2.5 emissions 20% lower. However, no significant changes emerge for NH3 emissions in Europe. Despite these cuts in emissions, negative impacts of air pollution remain considerable: In 2020, air pollution would still shorten statistical life expectancy by 4.7 months, there will be more than 24,000 cases of premature deaths every year caused by ground-level ozone, bio-diversity of 1.4 million km2 of European ecosystems will be threatened by high levels of nitrogen deposition, and more than 110,000 km2 of forests will continue to receive unsustainable levels of acid deposition.

There remains substantial scope for further environmental improvement through additional technical emission reduction measures. Cost-effective emission control scenarios are presented for five different sets of environmental targets on air quality. These targets cover a range from 25% to 75% of the feasible improvements for each effect, and they involve additional emission control costs of 0.6 to 10.6 billion Euros/yr over the entire modelling domain (on top of the costs of the baseline scenario). Between 50 and 60% of the costs emerge for the EU-countries. However, since the EU-27 includes 72% of total population and 88% of GDP in the modelling domain, these scenarios imply higher relative efforts for some non-EU countries.

Sensitivity analyses explore the robustness of optimization results against modifications in the ambition levels for individual effects, finding that different targets on ozone would have largest impacts on emission control costs.

As a new element, the analysis estimates impacts of the control scenarios on instantaneous radiative forcing and, for the Arctic and Alpine glaciers, on carbon deposition. The analysed scenarios tend to reduce the negative forcing (and thus increase radiative forcing) in the EMEP domain by up to 0.1 W/m2 (compared to a current total forcing from long-lived greenhouse gases of about 2.7 W/m2) as a consequence of cuts in cooling emissions. A sensitivity analysis demonstrates that low cost options are available that could reduce this negative impact on near-term climate change to some extent.

Item Type: Other
Research Programs: Air Quality & Greenhouse Gases (AIR)
Mitigation of Air Pollution (MAG)
Bibliographic Reference: [[CIAM-Report]], Version 2.1. CIAM, IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria (31 March 2011)
Depositing User: IIASA Import
Date Deposited: 15 Jan 2016 08:45
Last Modified: 27 Aug 2021 17:22

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