Water Use and Demand Forecasting in Canada: A Review

Tate, D.M. (1978). Water Use and Demand Forecasting in Canada: A Review. IIASA Research Memorandum. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: RM-78-016

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Abstract

This paper reviews the state-of-the-art with regard to water use and demand forecasting in Canada, and presents a framework for such studies in a national, regional, and river basin context. The paper demonstrates that, in view of Canada's overall water abundance, water supply has been the primary orientation of most Canadian studies, with little attention paid in the past to the water use side of the resource. Yet, as shown in the paper there are several problems arising in Canada which require water use and demand forecasting studies; these are recurring water shortages in some parts of the country, the growing importance of energy production, the investigation and solution of conflicts between water uses, the need to consider water uses in managing water quality, and the needs frequently to take water uses into account in solving international water management problems. The paper then outlines the constituents of an adequate water demand forecasting program, including an alternative futures framework, a systems approach, water pricing, technological change and economic interrelationships. Canadian efforts in water demand forecasting are then reviewed, the finding being generally that most studies have used the simplistic coefficients approach. Exceptions have occurred in the few studies done at Canadian universities, mainly on residential water use, which use much more adequate methodologies than the coefficients approach. The paper concludes by presenting a framework being developed in Canada for water demand forecasting at both the national and local (river basin) levels.

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