Cross-Impact Gaming Applied to Global Resources

Helmer, O. (1978). Cross-Impact Gaming Applied to Global Resources. IIASA Research Memorandum. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: RM-78-004

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Abstract

A number of efforts to deal with the problem of shrinking global resources have succeeded in alerting the public to the consequences of a continuing laissez-faire attitude in the face of currently observable population and industrial trends, but little has been done to provide positive as well as realistic plans for countering the threats of such disasters.

A systematic move in the direction of constructive global planning will have to be based on a new kind of model which includes reactions to uncertain contingencies as they arise. The present paper is intended to provide a methodological approach to the design of planning models appropriate for this purpose.

The illustration presented here, in contrast to traditional approaches has the form of an interactive simulation model. In addition to trends, such as population, pollution, or per capita food supply, it also includes events. The latter are of two kinds: stochastic occurrences, such as technological breakthroughs, which represent uncertain contingencies; and deliberate interventive reactions to these contingencies, such as legislative acts, treaties, or R+D efforts.

A full-fledged attempt to apply such precepts to global planning would require a very substantial effort. The present paper represents a first methodological step toward the implementation of such an endeavor.

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