Analysis and Future Estimation of Medical Demands Using a Health Care Simulation Model: A Case Study of Japan

Kaihara, S., Kawamura, N., Atsumi, K., & Fujimasa, I. (1978). Analysis and Future Estimation of Medical Demands Using a Health Care Simulation Model: A Case Study of Japan. IIASA Research Memorandum. IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria: RM-78-003

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Abstract

A method of building a universal health care model was proposed in RM-77-006 (Kaihara, et al., An Approach to Building a Universal Health Care Model). This method is based on the calculation of essential parameters of health care from ordinary statistics. The essential parameters proposed in the previous report were population structure, morbidity rate, recovery rate, death rate, patient registration rate and awareness rate.

The method was applied successfully to the analysis of medical demands at the national level of Japan. The results showed that in the past 15 years the awareness rate was the most important factor which contributed to the increase of the patients. But in the future, the model predicted that the change of population structure will be the main cause of the increase of the number of patients in Japan.

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