Subjective Probability Forecasting in the Real World: Some Experimental Results

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/3 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/3 http://eprints.org/relation/isCoversheetVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/3 archive 351 disk0/00/00/00/10 2016-01-15 01:40:29 2021-08-27 17:07:17 2016-01-15 01:40:29 monograph show 2 Murphy A.H. AL0279 Winkler R.L. AL0421 Subjective Probability Forecasting in the Real World: Some Experimental Results pub iis_met iis_mod iis_frc prog_sds Three experiments in subjective probability forecasting were designed, and these experiments were conducted in four forecast offices of the U.S. National Weather Service. The first experiment involved credible interval temperature forecasts, the second experiment involved point and area precipitation probability forecasts, and the third experiment involved the effect of guidance forecasts on precipitation probability forecasts. In each case, some background material is presented; the design of the experiment discussed; some preliminary results of the experiment are presented; and some implications of the experiment and the results for probability forecasting in general and probability forecasting in meteorology in particular are discussed. 1973-12 published RR-73-016 RR-73-016 10 2216 2520 public research_report IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 35 TRUE FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/book