196453document70929j.1439-0485.2011.00460.x.pdfapplication/pdffcbbc8446007b242da970e718d6a8065MD52859802016-09-12 14:32:07https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/10030/1/j.1439-0485.2011.00460.x.pdf