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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/13654 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/13654 http://eprints.org/relation/isCoversheetVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/13654 archive 351 disk0/00/01/02/62 2016-01-15 08:48:15 2021-08-27 17:23:01 2016-01-15 08:48:15 monograph show 2 Garbero A. 1947 Sanderson W.C. 1631 pub iis_pop prog_pop This paper presents life expectancy forecasts for all countries in the world explicitly assuming mortality convergence. We develop a model that takes into account country-specific heterogeneity in life expectancy historical trajectories, between-countries heterogeneity across gains and uncertainty through experts' based arguments (Lutz et al. 2001). The relevant literature has focused on forecasting mortality for a single population. Exception to this rule is the work by Li and Lee (2005) where the authors develop mortality forecasts that take into account patterns in a larger group using the Lee-Carter model. Torri and Vaupel (2012) argue that life expectancy in different countries tends to be positively correlated and forecast life expectancies in individual countries by forecasting the best-practice level and the gap between the national performance and the best-practice level. We build upon their work by varying the speed of convergence, taking into account differential rates of linear increase in life expectancy across group of countries. 2012-12 published IR-12-013 IR-12-013 1276 265 public interim_report IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 22 TRUE FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/book