South African food security and climate change: Agriculture futures

10327 7 33647 2 72336 document 33647 Economics_2013-35.pdf application/pdf 2e331cc54f5bac886c2c78531d238014 MD5 3213849 2016-02-23 09:50:31 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/10327/1/Economics_2013-35.pdf 10327 1 1 application/pdf text en public

Economics_2013-35.pdf

published 33648 2 72339 document 33648 lightbox.jpg image/png 42ee69f9d647b83cd64aa48b7afef1af MD5 54730 2016-02-23 09:50:36 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/10327/2/lightbox.jpg 10327 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/33647 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/33647 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/33647 archive 351 disk0/00/01/03/27 2016-01-15 08:48:32 2021-08-27 17:23:07 2016-01-15 08:48:32 article show 1 Dube S. Scholes R.J. Nelson G.C. Mason-D'Croz D. Palazzo A. 1994 0000-0001-8167-9403 South African food security and climate change: Agriculture futures pub iis_env iis_fag prog_esm Climate change; Crop production; Scenarios; Food security; Futures; Modeling The projected changes in planted area, yield per area, net exports/imports and prices for five major agricultural crops in South Africa were simulated using the projections of four Global Circulation Models (GCMs) under three socio-economic scenarios. The GCM projections show consistent strong warming over the subcontinent, but disagree with respect to future precipitation, from slight wetting (particularly on the eastern side) to overall slight drying. The future crop yields were simulated using the DSSAT crop model suite. The planted area, commodity prices and net exports were simulated using the IMPACT global food trade model. The results indicate slightly rising to stable yields per unit area up to 2050, despite climate change, largely due to the inbuilt assumption of ongoing agronomic and genetic improvements. Vulnerability to food insecurity increases in the future under all but the most optimistic development scenarios, and is exacerbated by climate change, especially through global-scale, market- related mechanisms. Policies to increase local agricultural production in South Africa, decrease climate sensitivity and access to international markets are highlighted. 2013-09 published Institut für Weltwirtschaft, Kiel (IfW) 10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2013-35 XJ-13-220 Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal; 7:2013-35 (2 September 2013) [doi:10.5018/economics-ejournal.ja.2013-35] 223 public Economics: The Open-Access, Open-Assessment E-Journal 2013-35 TRUE 1864-6042 FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/article