Very long range global population scenarios to 2300 and the implications of sustained low fertility

10438 10 33226 2 71170 document 33226 28-39.pdf application/pdf 15cf4f06f68ac258935f7c4a04dbf15e MD5 220389 2016-02-19 16:15:14 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/10438/1/28-39.pdf 10438 1 1 application/pdf text en public cc_by_nc

28-39.pdf

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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/33226 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/33226 http://eprints.org/relation/isIndexCodesVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/33226 archive 351 disk0/00/01/04/38 2016-01-15 08:48:52 2023-08-05 05:00:54 2016-01-15 08:48:52 article show Basten S. Lutz W. 1124 0000-0001-7975-8145 Scherbov S. 7113 0000-0002-0881-1073 Very long range global population scenarios to 2300 and the implications of sustained low fertility pub iis_pop prog_pop China; Fertility; Hong Kong; Projections BACKGROUND: Depending on whether the global level of fertility is assumed to converge to the current European TFR (~1.5) or that of Southeast Asia or Central America (~2.5), global population will either decline to 2.3-2.9 billion by 2200 or increase to 33-37 billion, if mortality continues to decline. Furthermore, sizeable human populations exist when the "voluntary chosen" ideal family size is heavily concentrated around one child per woman with TFRs as low as 0.6-0.8. However, the UN population projections to 2300 use a much narrower band of possible future TFRs. OBJECTIVE: If the two-child norm is not necessarily the end-point transition, what would be the consequences of the currently reported low fertility rates being sustained and becoming widespread? METHODS: We present new projections for 13 IPCC world regions with scenarios calculated on the basis of regular cohort-component projections by age and sex in single-year time steps up to 2300, each based upon a much broader set of fertility assumptions than currently employed. We create three mortality scenarios based upon maximum life expectancies of 90, 100, 110, as well as a series of "special" scenarios. RESULTS: Even under conditions of further substantial increases in life expectancy, world population size would decline significantly if the world in the longer run followed the examples of Europe and East Asia. CONCLUSIONS: In contrast to Malthusian disaster scenarios, our exercise illustrates the distinct possibility of significant population shrinking associated with increasing life expectancy and human well-being. 2013-05 published Max Planck Institute for Demographic Research 10.4054/DemRes.2013.28.39 XJ-13-109 Demographic Research; 28(39):1145-1166 (30 May 2013) [doi:10.4054/DemRes.2013.28.39] 190 270 public Demographic Research 28 39 1145-1166 TRUE 1435-9871 Forecasting Societies Adaptive Capacities to Climate Change (FUTURESOC, FP7 230195) FALSE yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/230195/Forecasting Societies Adaptive Capacities to Climate Change/FUTURESOC info:eu-repo/semantics/article info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess