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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/13736 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/13736 http://eprints.org/relation/isCoversheetVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/13736 archive 351 disk0/00/01/07/43 2016-01-15 08:50:00 2021-08-27 17:23:52 2016-01-15 08:50:00 monograph show 2 Garbero A. 1947 Pamuk E. 8445 Garenne M. Masquelier B. Pelletier F. The Future Mortality of High Mortality Countries: A Model Incorporating Expert Arguments pub iis_pop prog_pop This paper examines the future of mortality in the 65 countries still experiencing high mortality in 2010, as defined by a cutoff of 40 deaths before age five per thousand live births. Mortality declines in several countries stagnated or reversed in the last two decades of the twentieth century due mainly to HIV/AIDS. The forces underlying past mortality trends and affecting the future course of mortality are examined by reviewing the existing literature and reporting the results of the global survey and invited meeting, both involving mortality experts. The experts assessed the likelihood and weight of forces hypothesized to influence mortality. A statistical model is combined with these expert assessments to produce a set of mortality assumptions that are incorporated into the projections reported in this paper. This paper also addresses the limited availability of reliable data on age-specific mortality rates. 2013-10 published IR-13-017 IR-13-017 1276 1495 public interim_report IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 65 TRUE FALSE info:eu-repo/semantics/book