How Education Drives Demography and Knowledge Informs Projections

10744 20 13737 2 24481 document 13737 IR-13-016.pdf application/pdf cd099bb73e9c65f784fb6c78b87e2faf MD5 292333 2016-01-15 08:50:00 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/10744/1/IR-13-016.pdf 10744 1 1 text en public

IR-13-016.pdf

15 14284 2 26014 document 14284 lightbox.jpg image/png 30ac223b76a733ce51d090dfb614b499 MD5 14073 2016-01-15 09:31:06 https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/eprint/10744/2/lightbox.jpg 10744 2 2 image/png other Thumbnails conversion from text to thumbnail_lightbox en public

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IR-13-016.pdf

http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/13737 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/13737 http://eprints.org/relation/isCoversheetVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/13737 archive 351 disk0/00/01/07/44 2016-01-15 08:50:00 2023-08-05 05:00:56 2016-01-15 08:50:00 monograph show 2 Lutz W. 1124 0000-0001-7975-8145 Skirbekk V. 7986 How Education Drives Demography and Knowledge Informs Projections pub iis_pop prog_pop This paper makes the case for systematically adding education to age and sex as a third standard demographic dimension. It directly addresses the question whether the pervasive association of education with demographic outcomes reflects a causal relationship. Based on the notion of functional causality, the paper reviews theoretical and empirical approaches for assessing this question according to three criteria. It also explores possible alternative explanations such as reverse causality and self-selection, concluding that a functional causal relationship between education and health- and fertility-related outcomes is supported by the evidence. The paper then describes the book's expert argument-based approach for defining assumptions for population projections and compare this approach with how European national statistical offices now make and use their assumptions for population projections. Against this background the approach chosen for this study combines a structured substantive inquiry among hundreds of international experts with formal statistical models. 2013-10 published IR-13-016 IR-13-016 190 1575 public interim_report IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 29 Forecasting Societies Adaptive Capacities to Climate Change (FUTURESOC, FP7 230195) FALSE yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/230195/Forecasting Societies Adaptive Capacities to Climate Change/FUTURESOC info:eu-repo/semantics/book info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess