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http://eprints.org/relation/isVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/13740 http://eprints.org/relation/isVolatileVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/13740 http://eprints.org/relation/isCoversheetVersionOf https://pure.iiasa.ac.at/id/document/13740 archive 351 disk0/00/01/07/47 2016-01-15 08:50:01 2021-08-27 17:23:53 2016-01-15 08:50:01 monograph show 2 Goujon A. 1569 0000-0003-4125-6857 Fuchs R. AL0123 pub iis_pop prog_pop This paper presents and justifies a set of assumptions regarding the future of fertility in high-fertility countries based on an overview of fertility experiences in these countries, a review of factors influencing fertility change, a global survey of experts, and a final experts' meeting. Future fertility trends in high fertility countries, particularly in sub-Saharan Africa and South Asia will be the main determinants of global population growth over the rest of this century. Accordingly, this paper describes the diversity of experiences of the countries with currently high fertility, from those well advanced in the fertility transition to countries that have barely started. The expert survey emphasizes the importance of female education, urbanization and access to family planning in fertility declines. The literature review confirms these judgements. The paper ends with a technical description of the procedure for deriving the assumptions for projecting fertility in high fertility countries until 2100. 2013-10 published IR-13-013 IR-13-013 110 1889 public interim_report IIASA, Laxenburg, Austria 80 Forecasting Societies Adaptive Capacities to Climate Change (FUTURESOC, FP7 230195) FALSE yes info:eu-repo/grantAgreement/EC/FP7/230195/Forecasting Societies Adaptive Capacities to Climate Change/FUTURESOC info:eu-repo/semantics/book info:eu-repo/semantics/openAccess